The stats behind the Lightning Stakes

1 year ago

We’ve crunched the numbers and come up with the best hopes for this weekend’s Black Caviar Lightning (1000 metres) at Flemington.

Based purely on stats compiled since 1989, we have been able to whittle down the chances to a handful by taking into account saddle numbers of past winners, barriers, prices, age, sex and recent race (or spell) history.

Numbers

The No.1 horse has saluted on seven occasions in the past 30 years, four more times than any other number.

Osborne Bulls is the toppie on Saturday.

No.2 (Battle Hero), No.5 (Missrock), No.7 (Written By) and No.8 (Graff) are next best with three wins apiece.

On top: Osborne Bulls

Barriers

Gate two has been the most popular for winners with five over the past three decades.

Speedy two-year-old Jedastar jumps from two.

Barriers 5 (Osborne Bulls) and 6 (Glenall) have housed the winner on four occasions.

Drawn well: Jedastar

Age

There has been 10 three-year-old victors in 30 years.

Written By, Graff, Lean Mean Machine and Sunlight fit that age profile.

Seven four-year-olds, six five-year-olds and five six-year-olds have won.

Age appropriate: Written By, Graff, Lean Mean Machine and Sunlight

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Sex/type

Males have dominated the race with 22 winners from the last 30 editions.

Geldings have been the most successful, winning 14 times. Osborne Bulls and Battle Hero fit the bill.

Colts have won seven times and mares six.

Gender bias: Osborne Bulls and Battle Hero

Race (or spell) history

23 gallopers have raced first-up from a spell to win the Lightning. The average number of days for said spells is 112.

Fitting that criteria is Osborne Bulls, Divine Quality, Lean Mean Machine and Sunlight who will have had 105 days between races.

They all last raced on Derby Day, November 3.

Fresh and primed: Osborne Bulls, Divine Quality, Lean Mean Machine and Sunlight

Price

The most popular price for winners has been from $5-$7, which has occurred five times.

In Her Time ($5), Graff ($6) and Osborne Bulls ($6.50) sit in this section (however, these odds are TAB fixed as of Thursday morning and are subject to change).

There has been four winners less than $2, four under $3 and three from $3-$4, where the favourite Sunlight sits in betting.

Nicely priced: In Her Time, Graff and Osborne Bulls

Overall

Godolphin's Osborne Bulls ticks a lot of boxes and lands on top.

Next in line is Graff, just ahead of fellowthree-year-olds Sunlight, Written By and Lean Mean Machine.

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