Well, we’re here, the Super Bowl at the end of a season nobody thought would be played because of COVID. It has been a rocky year for NFL punting, with a few usual safe assumptions proven to be wildly wrong. Thanks for those who stuck with me through the year. I appreciate it.

I wanted to finish the year with a gift. 

Go HERE: https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/american-football/super-bowl-match-props/player-to-have-the-most-receiving-yards-5642728?fbclid=IwAR0VNkh-GEN8hfbAvWJaFwnsggzON1s5EvSYdcU_pBuZL8PExqYYpGULtpk

Bet on Hill and Kelce. The same players have odds of 2.00 on the TAB (and similar on other bookies). It’s a gift from our friends at Sportsbet. 

Otherwise, the big game is really hard to call. The line and the total is right, so I thought I’d hand out a few fun prop bets that I think have a decent chance of landing. But, to be clear, the vast bulk of my investment is on the market above. It’s a balls deep moment. 

Cameron Brate anytime TD @ 4.40 Ladbrokes

Brate is Brady's fave tight end and he's facing a Chiefs D that allowed 10 TDs to tight ends this season. Brate had five targets last week and six when the Bucs played the Chiefs. 

More points second half than first @ 1.90 Bet365 

This has hit in 17 of the past 22 Super Bowls. I expect this game to start slow as has been the case in recent years, giving the second half side a great chance of hitting.

Mahomes o2.5 TDs @ 1.71 Sportsbet 

The Bucs gave up the fewest rushing TDs in the league.  K.C. will score at least four touchdowns, making Mahomes a good bet to toss at least three. 

Largest lead in game: Under 16.5 @ 1.95 Topsport

A lead of over 15 has happened in only four of the last 17 Super Bowls. And Topsport was kind enough to give us an extra 1.5 points. 

MVP… it usually goes to a quarterback. But that’s boring. If you want some fun, and some value, I think it’s to be found on D. Small sprinkles only advised:

Devin White @ 51.00 Blue

Shaq Barrett @ 51.00 TAB

Chris Jones @ 151.00 Sportsbet

Tyrann Mathieu @ 46.00 Sportsbet

JPP @ 91.00 Sportsbet

Lastly, for the Super Bowl, the bookies usually put out some pre-packaged same game multis that offer a little more value than if you made it yourself. I’ve bet a couple of these that I think have some value. Small sprinkles only advised. 

Ladbrokes

Both teams score 10+ each half @ 2.85 Ladbrokes

Mahomes & Brady both 1+ passing TDs in each half @ 3.00 Ladbrokes

Bluebet

Kelce 10+ receptions and Chiefs win @ 4.50 Blue

Sportsbet

• Chiefs win, Mahomes & Brady 200+ passing yards each & 2+ interceptions each @ 46.00 Sportsbet
• Mahomes & Brady 250+, kelce 70+ and a TD, godwin 60+ @ 5.50 Sportsbet
• Fournette 40+ rushing yards, Brady 1+ interception & 1+ sacks, Kelce & Hill 75+ receiving yards each & Kelce 1+ TDs @ 8.00 Sportsbet
• Hill & Kelce combine for 180+ receiving yards & 3+ TDs @ Sportsbet
• Kansas City Chiefs to win, Hill to score 1+ TDs, Kelce 76+ receiving yards & 2nd half highest scoring half @ 5.00 Sportsbet
• Chiefs win, each team to score 1+ TDs in each half & Kelce & Hill 3+ receptions each @ 3.30 Sportsbet
• Mahomes to be Super Bowl MVP & Fournette 4+ receptions @ 3.00 Sportsbet
• Mahomes & Brady 260+ passing yards each, each team 1+ TDs in each half & each team 20+ points @ 4.50 Sportsbet