NFL PLAYS

1 month ago

After the Steelers choke cost us a huge payday week 1 of the playoffs, the Ravens did the same to us last week, not even keeping it close enough to cash +7.5. Keeping things simple this week, because I think there’s only one clear bet. 

 

Green Bay v Tampa Bay

 

To my mind, there’s only one team to back in this one and this weekend - the Green Bay Packers.

 

Green Bay is 30-6 SU and cover the spread 64% of the time at home in December and January since Rodgers became quarterback. They’re really tough to beat at Lambeau Field when the heat is on and the weather is cold. They’re also in fantastic form. 

 

On offence, the Packers are rolling. Rodgers will be the MVP, they have the best WR, a top 5 line and a top 5 running game. Against the best defence in the league last week they averaged 5.2 yards per carry, did not surrender a sack and only gave up one hit on Rodgers. Rodgers and the Packers won’t make the mistakes that Drew Brees made last week in gifting the Bucs a win. 

 

On defence, the Packers are improving. They’ve allowed under 20 points in the last 3 games and are conceding on average only 17 PPG in their last 6. They held a fairly potent Rams offence in check last week, allowing only 244 total yards, although to be fair that team was battling injuries.  

 

My take on Tampa is simple. They’re a good, not great, team. They have a good offence and a good defence, but there’s some terrible factors working against them. 

 

Turnover variance - Tampa Bay would be sitting at home if not for an uncharacteristic three interceptions from Drew Brees. It gave Tampa easy points, yet the Saints were still leading and running in for the game-sealing touchdown when Jared Cook fumbled a certain score. 

 

Travel - Tampa is playing in its third consecutive road playoff game. That’s incredibly hard, even without the complications caused by COVID. Six of the past seven teams to win two road playoff games then lost the third both straight up and ATS. Only four teams have done it in the 60 odd year history of the Super Bowl. That trend does not favour the Bucs. 

 

Weather - It’s going to be cold. And, while Tom Brady might be experienced in snow games, the rest of his teammates who spend most of their year in southern Florida are not quite so proficient. The history of warm weather teams in snow games on the road in January is poor. 

 

Strength of schedule - The Saints are the only good team the Bucs have played since week 12 and beaten since week 6. And, while the Packers had the easiest regular season schedule in the league, they’ve beaten three straight playoff teams by an average of 19.7 points. 

 

Home team dominance in Championship weekend - Home teams have dominated on conference championship Sunday for years. Over the last seven seasons, home teams are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in these games. It’s really hard to go into the stadiums of the best teams in the league and win when there’s a Super Bowl slot on the line. 

 

Bet: 2U Green Bay -3.0 @ 1.90 Sportsbet

 

Chiefs v Bills

 

There’s too much murkiness for me to bet this one. Mahomes is cleared to play after a concussion, but his toe is also injured. Slight lean the Chiefs if you have to have a swing, but wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills pulled it off.