NFL PLAYS

2 months ago

 

Apologies for missing last week, punters. A newborn got the better of me. I didn’t put a single bet on myself, but it looked a good week to miss, with a few huge upsets that most likely built Vegas another casino. Back to regular programming this week. 

 

Week 17 is not a week to blow your load (of cash!). A lot of teams are playing for nothing, others know they’ve got playoff spots locked up, and only a few games have any ‘live’ meaning. That said, there’s still some angles I like for some smaller plays this week to continue our tune up prior to playoffs.

 

Vikings v Lions u54.0

 

This one is about the injuries. For the Lions, Kenny Golladay is out and Matthew Stafford is questionable. For the Vikings, superstar back Dalvin Cook, the guy who their entire offence works around, is out. I think both sides struggle to put together much offence and both have nothing to play for. 

 

There’s a couple of nice little trend nuggets that favour the under as well. The Under is 9-0 since Nov. 19, 2017, when the Vikings are off a road game that went Over the total by at least five points. The Under is also 7-0 since Oct. 7, 2018, when the Vikings are off a game where Kirk Cousins threw at least 40 passes.

 

1U Vikings / Lions u54.0 @ 1.90 365

 

Panthers +6.0

 

The Saints have little to play for. They have a fractional chance of securing the NFC 1 seed. Counterbalancing that is the temptation to give one of the league’s oldest rosters a week off prior to playoffs. Also, star RB Alvin Kamara (fresh off a 6 TD game) is out with COVID, joining Michael Thomas on the sidelines. The Saints will be tempted to mail this one in.

 

On the other side of the ball, the Panthers played tough all season. Carolina has covered 4 of its last 5 games, including two games against top teams, showing they’re still playing hard. Playing at home, new coach Matt Rhule will want to see out the year on a positive and half his roster are playing for their careers.

 

1U Panthers +6.0 @ 1.93 Sportsbet

 

The ‘We’re Motivated!’ Multibet

 

This is one of my favourite traditions in NFL punting - taking good teams who need to win to make the playoffs or improve their playoff seeding versus bad ones who’ve checked out for the season. It has a really nice strike rate, so let’s see how we go. 

 

The Colts need to win if they’re to have any chance of playoffs and they’re a vastly superior team. The Bucs need to win to improve their seeding and their coach said he’ll play his starters. The Ravens need to win to improve their seeding and they’re a vastly superior team.

 

2U Bucs / Ravens / Colts @ 1.68 Ladbrokes

 

Year to date 30-32-2 -2.31 units