Record Keeping

Money (Mis) Management

Money (Mis) Management Part 2

Psychology Of Punting

Barrier Trials: Trial tease or future star?

What is unit betting?

Gear changes explained

Speed maps: How important are they?

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2 months ago

 

With COVID ripping through the League, like the rest of the United States, it’s hard to see the season being completed. Games are getting rescheduled, star players are being wiped out, and it has been without doubt the hardest season for punting I’ve experienced. But we clawed a little back last week and we’ll keep on trucking until we’re told we can’t. 

 

Year to date 22-28-1 -4.065 units

 

Chiefs v Bucs 

 

The Chiefs have lost one game out of their last 18, which makes any line on or under a field goal as close as it gets to free money. For as long as Mahomes is their QB and Reid is their coach, it’s as close to an auto-pick for me as it gets. Their offence is rolling (#1 ranked by DVOA) and their defence is improving (#14 ranked) as we get to the business end of the season - exactly the same as last year. 

 

The Bucs are solid, but in my opinion, a little overrated. Apart from a beat down of the Packers, they’ve been beaten by all their likely playoff peers, and they’re about to face the champ. This week, they’ve been forced to shuffle their O-line after a career ending injury to centre AQ Shipley, their best cornerback is out and Brady has shown nothing this season to convince me he can keep up with Mahomes in a shootout. 

 

1U Chiefs -3.0 @ 1.87 Topsport

 

Giants v Bengals

 

The Bengals lost their shining star and great hope Joe Burrow to a knee injury last week, derailing their season and their immediate future. After he went out of the game, the Bengals scored 3 points for the rest of the game. On top of that, they’re missing their best offensive weapon - Joe Mixon - making a tough job even more difficult. 

 

The Giants are 17-3 ATS in their last 20 road games, and odd stat for an ordinary but improving team. Better still, they’ve covered four straight, they’re out of a bye and riding a two-game win streak. If they win the game, they’re in the box seat to control their own playoff destiny. Their D is improving and they’re healthy for the first time in forever. 

 

1U Giants -5.5 @ 1.86 Sportsbet

 

Cardinals v Patriots

 

The Cardinals find themselves in a logjam for the playoffs, and this is the exact sort of game they’re going to need to win to keep pace in a competitive race. Kyler Murray is healthy after being dinged up and a 1 point line feels like a gift. 

 

They should have the edge here. Their O is top 5 in points per drive, and they’re facing a Patriots D ranked dead last by DVOA. On the other side of it, the sputtering Patriots O is walking into a top 10 D and the third ranked red zone D. 

 

0.5U Cardinals -1.5 @ 1.86 Sportsbet

 

Vikings v Panthers

 

Both teams are loaded with playmakers and both have shaky defences. Don’t have a read on the side, but I like the game to go over. 

 

0.5U Panthers/Vikings o50.0 @ 1.90 365

 

Multibet 

 

1.0U Seahawks / Packers / Dolphins / Browns @ 2.71 SB