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AFL Round 7 Preview & Tips

2 weeks ago

AFL Round 7

Wednesday 28th April, 2021

By Top Rankine


What a weekend for us it was! Winner after winner – just how punting should be. With six rounds completed, we’ve seen enough now to form some strong judgements and opinions, so we can trust our eyes and the data – but so can the bookies. We keep looking for value in the markets and we’ll package those options up again and hopefully plenty of winners again this weekend!

 

Round 7 Cross Game Multis (10 Unit Strategy)

 

Multi #1 (4 units @ $4.70 Tab)

o   Steele Sidebottom 25+ @ 1.45

o   Tom Phillips 20+ @ 1.50

o   Jake Lloyd 25+ @ 1.36

o   Darcy Parish 25+ @ 1.45


Multi 2 (3 units @ $7,5 Tab)

o   Taylor Duryea 15+ @ 1.45

o   Josh Daicos 20+ @ 1.67

o   Tim Taranto 25+ @ 1.36

o   James Cousins 15+ @ 1.45

o   Darcy Parish 25+ @ 1.45

 

Multi #3 (3 units @ $6.63 Tab)

o   Jayden Short 20+ @ 1.36

o   Scott Pendlebury 25+ @ 1.57

o   Jackson Hately 15+ @ 1.45

o   Dan Butler 1+ @ 1.40

o   Mitch Duncan 25+ @ 1.45

 

 

 

Richmond v Western Bulldogs (6 Unit Strategy)

Even with Dustin Martin out this round, I was really keen on Richmond at the line – but I’ve decided to play it safe and leave it out. Jayden Short has yet to miss 20+ this season, so consider me sold on that one. Jake Aarts has yet to go a game without scoring a goal this year (so he’s due to miss), but I’ll risk losing on that.

Same Game Multi #1 (5 units @ $2.00 SB)

o   Taylor Duryea 15+ @ 1.45

o   Jayden Short 20+ @ 1.36

 

Same Game Multi #2 (1 unit @ $5.75 SB)

o   Taylor Duryea 15+ @ 1.45

o   Jayden Short 20+ @ 1.36

o   Marcus Bontempelli 25+ @ 1.57

o   Jake Aarts 1+ @ 1.45

o   Tom Lynch 1+ @ 1.10


BEST BET:

o   Taylor Duryea 15+ @ 1.45

 

 

 

Collingwood v Gold Coast (6 Unit Strategy)

There’s plenty of value in this game! I’ve taken three the combinations below with my best bets and spread them around with a focus on Ben Ainsworth kicking another goal (or more hopefully). Josh Daicos found plenty of the ball as Collingwood threw the magnets around last week and I think he’ll continue to play through the midfield, so he represents great value. Pendlebury and Sidebottom are classy, ball winners who should be there abouts as always.

Same Game Multi #1 (3 units @ $4.00)

o   Ben Ainsworth 1+ @ 1.45

o   Josh Daicos 20+ @ 1.67

o   Scott Pendlebury 25+ @ 1.57

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2 units @ $5.25 SB)

o   Ben Ainsworth 1+ @ 1.45

o   Izak Rankine 1+ @ 1.30

o   Josh Daicos 20+ @ 1.67

o   Steele Sidebottom 25+ @ 1.45

 

Same Game Multi #3 (1 unit @ $9.00)

o   Ben Ainsworth 2+ @ 3.50

o   Scott Pendlebury 25+ @ 1.57

o   Noah Anderson 25+ @ 1.67


BEST BET:

o   Josh Daicos 20+ @ 1.67

 

 

 

Adelaide v GWS (6 Unit Strategy)

The odds aren’t high, but I think there’s still plenty of value to be had here! Brodie Smith has only missed 20+ once this season and Tim Taranto is GWS’s number one midfielder for a reason. It’s always risky relying on so many players to get disposals, but I think there’s every chance it happens here.

Same Game Multi #1 (4 units @ $5.25 SB)

o   Jackson Hately 15+ @ 1.45

o   Brodie Smith 20+ @ 1.36

o   Isaac Cumming 20+ @ 1.57

o   Rory Laird 25+ @ 1.22

o   Tim Taranto 25+ @ 1.36

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2 units @ $5.00 SB)

o   GWS 1-39 @ 2.50

o   Tim Taranto 25+ @ 1.36

o   Jackson Hately 15+ @ 1.45


BEST BET:

o   Tim Taranto 25+ @ 1.36

 

 

 

St Kilda v Hawthorn (6 Unit Strategy)

I won’t be backing the result here because St Kilda could win by 40 or lose by 140. Jack Steele has been amazing in a horrible team this year, only missing 25+ once in round one. There’s enough value here again for us to feel confident putting together a few combinations and hopefully landing one or more of them.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $4.75)

o   Dan Butler 1+ @ 1.40

o   Dougal Howard 15+ @ 1.50

o   James Cousins 15+ @ 1.45

o   Tom Phillips 20+ @ 1.50

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2 units @ $4.75)

o   St Kilda win @ 1.62

o   Dan Butler 1+ @ 1.40

o   Dougal Howard 15+ @ 1.45

o   James Cousins 15+ @ 1.45

 

Same Game Multi #3 (2 units @ $6.25)

o   James Cousins 15+ @ 1.45

o   James Worpel 20+ @ 2.20

o   Tom Phillips 20+ @ 1.45

o   Jack Steele 25+ @ 1.36


BEST BET:

o   James Cousins 15+ @ 1.45

 

** Same Game Multi #2 and #3 updated with Jack Lonie not being selected.

 

 

 

Brisbane v Port Adelaide (5 Unit Strategy)

I’m very wary about backing Port Adelaide players for possesions after the game script last week in which they played ‘keepings off’. I’d recommend avoiding it and letting the value return over the next week or two before playing again. Hugh McCluggage has only gone goalless once this season and continues to find the football with a larger role through the guts now. I think Port Adelaide win here with Lachie Neale out.

Same Game Multi #1 (3 units @ $4.30 TAB)

o   Hugh McCluggage 1+ @ 1.72

o   Connor Rozee 1+ @ 1.45

o   Hugh McCluggage 25+ @ 1.53

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2 units @ $6.50 TAB)

o   Port Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.20

o   Jarryd Lyons 25+ @ 1.57

o   Eric Hipwood 2+ @ 1.50


BEST BET:

o   Hugh McCluggage 25+ @ 1.53

 

 

 

Sydney v Geelong (5 Unit Strategy)

Whilst there weren’t a lot of markets that took my fancy here, I’m happy to go with a couple of simple and similar combinations. Look for Tom Papley to have his chances to hit the scoreboard and I’d think after a return to form last week, Geelong will feel confident in getting the four points at the SCG.

Same Game Multi #1 (3.5 units @ $3.00 SB)

o   Geelong win @ 1.47

o   Jake Lloyd 25+ @ 1.36

o   Mitch Duncan 25+ @ 1.45

 

Same Game Multi #2 (1.5 units @ $9.75 SB)

o   Geelong 1-39 @ 2.10

o   Tom Papley 2+ @ 2.00

o   Jake Lloyd 25+ @ 1.36

o   Mitch Duncan 25+ @ 1.45


BEST BET:

o   Mitch Duncan 25+ @ 1.50

 

 

 

North Melbourne v Melbourne (0 Unit Strategy)

Terrible team + terrible markets = no bets.


BEST BET:

o   Melbourne win @ 1.03 (comparitable to interest rates with your banks)

 

 

 

Essendon v Carlton (6 Unit Strategy)

Darcy Parish is my big watch here. And I plan on watching with money on him. He was huge on ANZAC Day, collecting big numbers and having a large impact. He’s having a career season and I don’t see either team applying any tags here.

Same Game Multi #1 (2.5 units @ $4.20 SB)

o   Darcy Parish 25+ @ 1.45

o   Sam Docherty 25+ @ 1.67

o   Sam Walsh 30+ @ 1.62

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2.5 units @ $4.50 SB)

o   Carlton win @ 1.69

o   Darcy Parish 30+ @ 2.60

 

Same Game Multi #3 (1 unit @ $11.00  SB )

o   Carlton 1-39 @ 2.30

o   Sam Docherty 25+ @ 1.67

o   Darcy Parish 30+ @ 2.60


BEST BET:

o   Darcy Parish 25+ @ 1.45

 

 

 

West Coast v Fremantle (0 Unit Strategy)

Love a derby, but I’ll be watching it with no bets on it unfortunately. Couldn’t find any edge in the markets here and given I’m keen on some value elsewhere I won’t be playing here!


BEST BET:

o   Minairo Frederick 1+ @ 1.67