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AFL Round 4 Preview & Tips

2 weeks ago

AFL Round 4

Wednesday 7th April, 2021

By Top Rankine


Firstly, yours truly needs to put his hand up and acknowledge he got something wrong. Horribly wrong. “St Kilda could win by triple digits…” They nearly lost by triple digits!!
Anyway, thankfully you don’t have to wait long for redemption at this stage of the year. There seems to be a little bit more value in the markets this week, which is exciting, so now we’ve just got to try and find the right combinations!

 

Round 4 Cross Game Multis (12 Unit Strategy)

 

Multi #1 (3 units @ $7.09 Tab)

o   Devon Smith 1+ @ 1.83

o   Dan Houston 20+ @ 1.17

o   Brandon Ellis 20+ @ 1.20

o   Jeremy Howe 20+ @ 1.57

o   Paul Seedsman 20+ @ 1.45


Multi 2 (3 units @ $5.96 Tab)

o   Jake Lloyd 25+ @ 1.36

o   Dan Houston 20+ @ 1.17

o   Hugh McCluggage 20+ @ 1.40

o   Tim Taranto 25+ @ 1.50

o   Paul Seedsman 20+ @ 1.45

 

Multi #3 (3 units @ $6.40 Tab)

o   Jake Lloyd 25+ @ 1.36

o   Hugh McCluggage 20+ @ 1.40

o   Jack Steele 25+ @ 1.57

o   Brandon Ellis 20+ @ 1.20

o   Luke Ryan 20+ @ 1.45


Multi 4 (3 units @ $8.10 Tab)

o   Callum Mills 25+ @ 1.45

o   Tim Taranto 25+ @ 1.50

o   Jeremy Howe 20+ @ 1.57

o   Luke Davies-Uniacke 1+ @ 2.10

 

 

 

Sydney v Essendon (5 Unit Strategy)

Saturday was an easy watch for fans of both sides last weekend. Sydney’s kids continued their impressive start to the season with a dominating performance over Richmond whilst Essendon slaughtered St Kilda in one of the most one-sided games I can recall. Based on the upside of Sydney it’s hard to look past them here and I’d expect them to control possession. Devon Smith has continued to improve in his return to a forward position and represents good value to hit the scoreboard.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $6.00 SB)

o   Sydney 1-39 @ 2.20

o   Callum Mills 25+ @ 1.45

o   Devon Smith 1+ @ 1.83

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2 units @ $3.20 Tab)

o   Jake Lloyd 25+ @ 1.36

o   Jordan Dawson 20+ @ 1.25

o   Harrison Jones 1+ @ 1.67

 

Same Game Multi #3 (1 unit @ $10.75 SB)

o   Sydney 1-39 @ 2.20

o   Callum Mills 25+ @ 1.45

o   Jake Lloyd 25+ @ 1.36

o   Jordan Dawson 20+ @ 1.25

o   Devon Smith 1+ @ 1.83


BEST BET:

o   Devon Smith 1+ @ 1.83

 

 

 

Port Adelaide v Richmond (4 Unit Strategy)

Unlike the previous game, these two sides had miserable performances last round. It’ll be interesting to see who bounces back the best. Dion Prestia is a huge loss for Richmond side already missing Nick Vlastuin, so they’ll need their stars to step up. Tom Lynch is quietly building into the season and Port’s defenders have had a habit of being monstered by power forwards (eg. Tom Hawkins), so I’m willing to back Lynch in to kick a number of goals here.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $6.50) TAB

o   Richmond +8.5 @ 1.90

o   Zak Butters 20+ @ 1.80

o   Jack Graham 20+ @ 1.80

 

Same Game Multi #2 (1 unit @ $4.90 TAB)

o   Zak Butters 20+ @ 1.80

o   Tom Lynch 3+ @ 2.25

 

Same Game Multi #3 (1 unit @ $5.50 TAB)

o   Dan Houston 20+ @ 1.17

o   Jack Graham 20+ @ 1.80

o   Tom Lynch 3+ @ 2.25


BEST BET:

o   Tom Lynch 3+ @ 2.25

 

 

 

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane (5 Unit Strategy)

I quite like the values in a number of markets here, so I’ve tried to cover them as best I could. I’d expect all of the goal scorer selections to have their opportunities; they’ll just need to take them. Hugh McCluggage was superb last week after a fast start at Geelong and looked to play more on the inside.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $4.40 TAB)

o   Hugh McCluggage 20+ @ 1.40

o   Laitham Vandermeer 1+ @ 1.53

o   Dayne Zorko 1+ @ 1.83

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2 units @ $4.50 SB)

o   Adam Treloar 25+ @ 1.40

o   Hugh McCluggage 20+ @ 1.40

o   Charlie Cameron 2+ @ 2.10

 

Same Game Multi #3 (1 units @ $10.00 SB)

o   Brisbane +11.5 @ 1.90

o   Adam Treloar 25+ @ 1.40

o   Joe Daniher 2+ @ 1.67

o   Lincoln McCarthy 1+ @ 1.40

o   Laitham Vandermeer 1+ @ 1.53


BEST BET:

o   Hugh McCluggage 20+ @ 1.40

 

 

 

St Kilda v West Coast (3 Unit Strategy)

St Kilda, you were completely disgusting (excluding Jack Steele who was simply amazing). With that in mind, he’s great value for 25+ and if St Kilda can get the ball in their forward half I’d think Jack Lonie can make the most of an opportunity or two. There wasn’t a lot of value from an Eagles perspective, so we’ll keep it simple here.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $5.25 SB)

o   Jack Steele 25+ @ 1.57

o   Brad Crouch 20+ @ 1.33

o   Jack Darling 2+ @ 1.33

o   Jack Lonie 1+ @ 1.67

 

Single Bet #1 (1 unit @ $4.50 SB )

o   Jack Lonie 2+ @ 4.50


BEST BET:

o   Jack Lonie 1+ @ 1.67

 

 

 

Gold Coast v Carlton (4 Unit Strategy)

This is another game that didn’t represent great value. Zac Williams has shown some positive signs, just missing 20 last week despite spending some time off the ground having an injury attend to. Brandon Ellis has been flying in a possession happy Suns side and I’d expect Ainsworth to continue to be dangerous around goal.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $4.10 Tab)

o   Brandon Ellis 20+ @ 1.20

o    Blues Win @ 1.40

o   Ben Ainsworth 1+ @ 1.40

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2 units @ $3.10 TAB)

o   Sam Walsh 25+ @ 1.22

o   Brandon Ellis 20+ @ 1.20

o   Jack Silvagni 1+ @ 1.45

o   Izak Rankine 1+ @ 1.20


BEST BET:

o   Brandon Ellis 20+ @ 1.20

 

 

 

Collingwood v GWS (5 Unit Strategy)

I’m not sure what to make of Collingwood’s start to the year, but one thing I am confident in is their ability to wax the pill around the half back line. Tim Taranto is possibly the best bet of the round for 25+ at 1.50. He’s their number one midfielder and they’ll need him getting every single one of those possessions and more to be a chance. Really like the markets available in this game – hopefully we’ve got some winning combinations at juicy odds.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $5.00 SB)

o   Collingwood 1-39 @ 2.10

o   Tim Taranto 25+ @ 1.50

o   Jeremy Howe 20+ @ 1.57

 

Same Game Multi #2 (1.5 units @ $12.25 SB)

o   Tim Taranto 30+ @ 2.63

o   Jeremy Howe 20+ @ 1.57

o   Josh Daicos 2+ @ 2.80

 

Same Game Multi #3 (1.5 units @ $11.50 SB)

o   Collingwood 1-39 @ 2.10

o   Tim Taranto 25+ @ 1.50

o   John Noble 20+ @ 1.40

o   Jordan De Goey 3+ @ 2.25


BEST BET:

o   Tim Taranto 25+ @ 1.50

 

 

 

North Melbourne v Adelaide (5 Unit Strategy)

Back against North Melbourne was my best tactic last week and although I don’t rate Adelaide, I’m sticking with it. Paul Seedsman has gone about his business quietly and effectively, so happy to back him in here. My big watch in this game is Luke Davies-Uniacke however. With Cunnington returning last weekend he spent some time playing as a full forward. Whilst he didn’t manage to hit the scoreboard, I think he represents serious value providing he gets that opportunity again against a much weaker side than he faced last weekend.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $8.50 TAB)

o   Adelaide -20.5 @ 1.90

o   Jy Simpkin 25+ @ 2.00

o   Paul Seedsman 20+ @ 1.45

o   Sam Berry 1+ @ 1.72

 

Same Game Multi #2 (1.5 units @ $7.00 Tab)

o   Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.10

o   Paul Seedsman 20+ @ 1.45

o   Luke Davies-Uniacke 1+ @ 2.10

 

Same Game Multi #3 (1 unit @ $9.50)

o   Adelaide -20.5 @ 1.90

o   Jy Simpkin 25+ @ 2.00

o   Luke Davies-Uniacke 1+ @ 2.10

 

Same Game Multi #4 (0.5 unit @ $21.75)

o   Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.10

o   Paul Seedsman 20+ @ 1.45

o   Luke Davies-Uniacke 2+ @ 7.00


BEST BET:

o   Luke Davies-Uniacke 1+ @ 2.10

 

 

 

Melbourne v Geelong (4 Unit Strategy)

This is a game I don’t have a strong read on. Melbourne have been okay. Geelong have been okay. I’m keeping it simple here. I don’t think Melbourne are a 4-0 team. Miers is due some goals and if Geelong win, they’ll have to score from somewhere other than just Hawkins. Langdon keeps racking them up on a wing. Pickett looks like a freak. Let’s see how we go!

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $6.00)

o   Geelong 1-39 @ 2.30

o   Gryan Miers 2+ @ 3.00

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2 units @ $5.00 Tab)

o   Ed Langdon 25+ @ 2.00

o   Kysaiah Pickett 2+ @ 2.20


BEST BET:

o   Geelong 1-39 @ 2.30

 

 

 

Fremantle v Hawthorn (3 Unit Strategy)

Again, not the best of markets. But one worth watching is Mitch Lewis. Fremantle are undersized in defence and we say that with Harry McKay dominating them last week. Mitch Lewis isn’t anywhere near the same quality, but he projects as being their number one deep target. Minairo Frederick was very impressive in a poor team display last week registering 5 shots at goal – If he can get two of them on target this week I’d be pleased.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $4.00 SB)

o   Luke Ryan 20+ @ 1.45

o   Tom Phillips 20+ @ 1.30

o   Mitch Lewis 2+ @ 2.00

 

Same Game Multi #2 (1 unit @ $5.00 TAB)

o   Luke Ryan 20+ @ 1.45

o   Tom Phillips 20+ @ 1.30

o   Minairo Frederick 2+ @ 2.50


BEST BET:

o   Tom Phillips 20+ @ 1.30