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AFL Round 3 Preview & Tips

3 weeks ago

AFL Round 3

Wednesday 31st March, 2021

By Top Rankine


It was a frustrating week on the punt last week with so many best bets getting up, but missing a number of profitable combos. Regardless, we go again. Tactics are changing quite a bit this round to account for the horrific odds on offer. Hopefully we can cash in on some of these best bets and find a few simple winners along the way. Tipping can be hard enough as is, but I think we can find our value/edge in the ‘Big Win Little Win’ markets.

 

 

Round 2 Cross Game Multis (15 Unit Strategy)

 

Multi #1 (3 units @ $9.97)

o   Brisbane 1-39 @ 2.50

o   St Kilda -21.5 @ 1.90

o   Carlton 1-39 @ 2.10


Multi 2 (3 units @ $11.87)

o   Brisbane 1-39 @ 2.50

o   St Kilda -21.5 @ 1.90

o   Port Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.50

 

Multi #3 (3 units @ $9.45)

o   Gold Coast 1-39 @ 2.37

o   St Kilda -21.5 @ 1.90

o   Carlton 1-39 @ 2.10


Multi 4 (3 units @ $9.03)

o   Western Bulldogs 40+ @ 1.72

o   Port Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.50

o   Carlton 1-39 @ 2.10

 

Multi 5 (3 units @ $5.81)

o   Gold Coast 1-39 @ 2.37

o   Richmond win @ 1.25

o   St Kilda win @ 1.29

o   Sam Docherty 20+ @ 1.17

o   Tom Stewart 20+ @ 1.30

 

 

 

Collingwood vs Brisbane (4 Unit Strategy)

Collingwood did a mighty fine job in beating Carlton last week, but I still have some doubts about their overall prospects. Brisbane were gallant in defeat (completely robbed) at Geelong and despite the awful preparation they’ve faced for this game, I’ll back them in again. I just don’t see them being 0-3 to start the season.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $3.30)

o   Brisbane +2.5 @ 1.90

o   Jeremy Howe 20+ @ 1.62

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2 units @ $3.60)

o   Brisbane 1-39 @ 2.50

o   Hugh McCluggage 20+ @ 1.45


BEST BET:

o   Brisbane +2.5 @ 1.90

 

 

 

North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs (4 Unit Strategy)

North are so bad that I think I’m going to start looking at taking the line against them each week for the rest of the season. Of all the markets I’ve ever seen in football, this game is the worst. Whilst I still have my question marks over the Bulldogs ability to kick significant amounts of goals in games, this is there opportunity to do so and I’m happy to back them in.

Bet #1 (2 units @ $1.90)

o   Western Bulldogs -42.5 @ 1.90

 

Bet #2 (1 unit @ $1.83)

o   Tarryn Thomas 1+ @ 1.83

 

Same Game Multi #1 (1 unit @ $3.60)

o   Western Bulldogs 40+ @ 1.72

o   Tarryn Thomas 1+ @ 1.83


BEST BET:

o   Western Bulldogs 40+ @ 1.72

 

 

 

Adelaide vs Gold Coast (3 Unit Strategy)

This has elements of being an intriguing matchup if Adelaide can play at least few decent quarters. Gold Coast look slick and impressive with the ball in hand and their senior bodies are allowing their talented youngsters to flourish. Tom Lynch didn’t look great last week, but when you look back at his 2019 numbers he never had any trouble finding 20+ so I think it’s worth a punt this week.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $4.33)

o   Gold Coast 1-39 @ 2.37

o   James Rowe 1+ @ 1.36

o   Rory Laird 25+ @ 1.22

 

Same Game Multi #2 (1 unit @ $6.50)

o   Gold Coast 1-39 @ 2.37

o   Tom Lynch 20+ @ 2.63


BEST BET:

o   Gold Coast 1-39 @ 2.37

 

 

 

Richmond vs Sydney (4 Unit Strategy)

I think Richmond win and win easily, but watching Sydney’s kids on the weekend left me gobsmacked. I think Braeden Campbell looks a likely Rising Star winner, but then there’s Logan McDonald who is dominating as well. That’s not to mention Errol Gulden who has been superb too. Tom Papley seems to be a little forgotten in the markets after a simple, but not overly exciting start to the year personally.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $4.00)

o   Richmond win @ 1.25

o   Tom Papley 2+ @ 2.10

o   Dion Prestia 25+ @ 1.30

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2 units @ $4.00)

o   Richmond 1-39 @ 2.20

o   Tom Papley 1+ @ 1.20

o   Jake Lloyd 20+ @ 1.04

o   Callum Mills 20+ @ 1.14

o   Jayden Short 20+ @ 1.17


BEST BET:

o   Richmond win @ 1.25

 

 

 

Essendon vs St Kilda (5 Unit Strategy)

St Kilda will be mighty glad to have a bye this early in the season. It’s hard to know whether or not playing in the slop in Sydney the week earlier had much impact, but there’ll be no excuses this weekend against a very poor and now undermanned Essendon. This could be the first genuine smashing of the year – I’m not ruling out somewhere near triple digits if St Kilda turn up. With this in mind, Jack Lonie should be one of a number of St Kilda forwards expecting to hit the scoreboard multiple times.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $4.00)

o   St Kilda -21.5 @ 1.90

o   Jack Lonie 2+ @ 2.40

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2 units @ $4.33)

o   St Kilda 40+ @ 3.00

o   Jack Lonie 1+ @ 1.28

o   Hunter Clark 20+ @ 1.25

 

Same Game Multi #3 (1 unit @ $5.50)

o   St Kilda -21.5 @ 1.90

o   Jade Gresham 1+ @ 1.57

o   Devon Smith 1+ @ 1.62


BEST BET:

o   St Kilda -21.5 @ 1.90

 

 

 

West Coast vs Port Adelaide (5 Unit Strategy)

West Coast fought incredibly hard against the Bulldogs and I think that bodes well for a tough match up against the exciting and talented Port Adelaide group. I think regardless of who wins, it’ll be a tight game, so I’m happy to back Port in to with a margin between 1-39. Karl Amon remains the value in the market and Jermaine Jones will get his opportunities to hit the scoreboard.

Bet #1 (4 units @ $2.50)

o   Port Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.50

 

Same Game Multi #1 (1 unit @ $8.75)

o   Port Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.50

o   Karl Amon 20+ @ 2.25

o   Jermaine Jones 1+ @ 1.57


BEST BET:

o   Port Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.50

 

 

 

Carlton vs Fremantle (4 Unit Strategy)

Same old Carlton? I was stunned they couldn’t get the job done against Collingwood and have really had to question where I see them. At home against an already depleted Fremantle side that will certainly be missing skipper Nat Fyfe is simply a must win. Sam Walsh should continue to do what he does best – rack ‘em up and I think it’s only a matter of time before we see a breakout game from Hayden Young.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $6.25)

o   Carlton 1-39 @ 2.10

o   Sam Walsh 30+ @ 1.83

o   Luke Ryan 20+ @ 1.53

 

Same Game Multi #2 (2 units @ $5.75)

o   Carlton 1-39 @ 2.10

o   Sam Docherty 20+ @ 1.17

o   Hayden Young 20+ @ 2.25


BEST BET:

o   Carlton 1-39 @ 2.10

 

 

 

GWS vs Melbourne (3 Unit Strategy)

GWS were made to look silly by the depleted Fremantle team on the weekend. Maybe the slop they played in against the Saints is a viable excuse for them too, but what I really want to know is why their A-grade talents look like C-grade hacks? Melbourne will take a lot of confidence out of their weekend win and with Gawn dominating in around stoppages, he should give his mob first use again this weekend. Kysaiah Pickett was terrific last weekend and looks to have some class around goal.

Same Game Multi #1 (2 units @ $5.00)

o   Kysaiah Pickett 2+ @ 2.88

o   Tim Taranto 25+ @ 1.72

 

Same Game Multi #2 (1 unit @ $10.50)

o   Ian Hill 1+ @ 1.62

o   Kysaiah Pickett 1+ @ 1.36

o   Josh Kelly 25+ @ 1.72

o   Tim Taranto 25+ @ 1.72

o   Christian Petracca 25+ @ 1.45


BEST BET:

o   Tim Taranto 25+ @ 1.72

 

 

 

Geelong vs Hawthorn (3 Unit Strategy)

This rivalry has continually surprised and produced tight results, but I’m not expecting to be surprised here. Geelong should prove too good for Hawthorn on Easter Monday. Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Geelong take the foot off the throat come the final quarter if they’re in a comfortable position. Tom Stewart and Tom Phillips, despite being very short, still offer some value for 20+ given their ability to accumulate numbers.

Same Game Multi #1 (3 units @ $3.75)

o   Geelong 1-39 @ 2.10

o   Tom Stewart 20+ @ 1.30

o   Tom Phillips 20+ @ 1.22


BEST BET:

o   Tom Stewart 20+ @ 1.30