The Race Club
31 October 2022
MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW
It is fair to say, this isn’t the strongest edition of the “Race That Stops A Nation”, however the build
up and excitement is nothing short of any other year, and it will again be a fantastic spectacle.
Below is a preview of the key chances for the big race and runner by runner comments.
There’s a pretty strong case to be made for Deauville Legend after a dominant win in the Voltigeur,
and you can draw a strong form line with El Bodegon running very well in the Cox Plate since. He
improved his figure from the Gordon Stakes 2 nd under 60kg and I’d suggest only improves again
getting out to this trip. Breeding backs up that thought. Good map, likely in just behind speed and
will get every chance.
Gold Trip has run better than my expectations with weight. Should have finished closer in Cox Plate,
dropping in trip from a stout Caulfield Cup run. Weight query again, but can certainly be in the finish.
Montefilia resumed well enough in the George Main. Below expectations second-up behind
Cascadian. Clearly the one to follow through Caulfield Cup. One of the better local hopes.
Without A Fight is a definite hope, with two wins at 2800m before an even effort when dropping in
trip. Right on target.
Young Werther is one for exotics. Improved figure in each start off long spell and was going ok in the
Cox Plate, not ridden out over the concluding stages. Good 3 rd in Turnbull and I’m confident gets the
trip. Barrier hurts but suggest snag back and look to finish.
Lunar Flare can be right in the finish and is one of the solid local hopes. Great base for this. Although
runner up should have beaten her in The Bart Cummings, the run was solid. Runner up, Francesco
Guardi got redemption in the Gold Cup, however good effort and I’m confident we see a new figure
to two miles.
SELECTIONS:
#8 DEAUVILLE LEGEND
#4 MONTEFILIA
#1 GOLD TRIP
#6 WITHOUT A FIGHT
#11 YOUNG WERTHER
#18 LUNAR FLARE
#19 SMOKIN’ ROMANS
BETTING:
Given the favourite is under $5, I’ve looked at two runners at double figures to top him:
MONTEFILIA WIN
WITHOUT A FIGHT WIN
EXOTICS:
1.4.6.8 / 1.4.6.8.11.18.19 / 1.4.6.8.11.13.18.19
BEST BET
R5 FIELD OF FLUTES
He was dominant resuming in ok figures and progressed very well stepping right up in grade at The
Valley. He’s has run at above average fractions and was the clear outlier. I’m sure that run has
brought him on to peak here third-up and although this is another level again, he can continue his
progressive trend.
VALUE BET
R3 THE CUNNING FOX
Resumes on the back of great lead in work, particularly the latest trial when working home under his
own steam. Handles all conditions and there does appear ample speed on paper for him to have last
crack. Playing EW.
MELBOURNE CUP RUNNER COMMENTS:
GOLD TRIP – Has run better than my expectations with weight. Should have finished closer in Cox
Plate, dropping in trip from a stout Caulfield Cup run. Weight query again, but can certainly be in the
finish.
DUAIS – Not back as well this time in, although did improve last start in the Caulfield Cup. Standing
reserved on her.
KNIGHTS ORDER – Sydney and Brisbane Cup winner. Gets the trip but needs to dictate at slow
fractions. Not likely here.
MONTEFILIA – Resumed well enough in the George Main. Below expectations second-up behind
Cascadian. Clearly the one to follow through Caulfield Cup. One of the better local hopes.
NUMERIAN – Needs to improve figure, trip query.
WITHOUT A FIGHT – Definite hope, with two wins at 2800m before an even effort when dropping in
trip. Right on target.
CAMORRA – Couldn’t have off St Leger effort.
DEAUVILLE LEGEND - There’s a pretty strong case to be made for DEAUVILLE LEGEND after a
dominant win in the Voltigeur, and you can draw a line in the form with El Bodegon running very
well in the Cox Plate since. Improved his figure from the Gordon Stakes 2 nd under 60kg and I’d
suggest only improves again getting out to this trip. Breeding backs up that thought. Good map,
likely in just behind speed and will get every chance.
STOCKMAN – Needs new figure, however is a rough hope on ATC St Leger effort.
VOW AND DECLARE – Going below figures when lead in to winning the Cup in 2019.
YOUNG WERTHER – One for exotics. Improved figure in each start off long spell and was going ok in
Cox Plate, not ridden out. Good 3 rd in Turnbull and I’m confident gets the trip. Barrier hurts, but
suggest snag back and look to finish.
HOO YA MAL – Unsure gets trip. St Leger average dropping out. March Stakes win solid enough.
SERPENTINE – Turned new figure in 5 th Au start. Would need to rise again but can getting out in trip. Big roughie to include for wider exotics.
DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR – Figures don’t measure up.
GRAND PROMENADE – Figures don’t measure up. Would need to be somewhere near Bart
Cummings win last year to give strong thought. Firmer footing would help.
ARAPHAO – Figures don’t measure up.
EMISSARY – Geelong Cup winner. Had race run to suit. 3200m a query.
LUNAR FLARE – She can be right in the finish and is one of the solid local hopes. Great base for this.
Although runner up should have beaten her in The Bart Cummings, the run was solid. Runner up,
Francesco Guardi got redemption in the Gold Cup, however good effort and I’m confident gets trip.
SMOKIN’ ROMANS – No real knock and looks suited at two miles. Tempo / race shape has been in
favour all prep. Goes in exotics.
TRALEE ROSE – Doesn’t get trip.
POINT NEPAEAN – Has to improve considerably but can getting out to two miles. About his true
price.
HIGH EMOCEAN – Sound Bendigo Cup winner. Needs new figure.
INTERPRETATION – Below expectation in Geelong Cup.
REALM OF FLOWERS – Good finish in Metrop, but query that form reference. She can stay. Too
tightly priced.