MOONEE VALLEY 22/10/2022
Happy to side with the Hayes-trained ARKANSAW KID here in the opener. He has had the two Flemington jump-outs which I like. His first trial on the grass was very smart closing off from the speed in good time. Drawn well and will sit on pace which is key. MEXICO comes down from Sydney and finds the inform James Mcdonald. It's always a massive tick with these youngsters seeing who James jumps on. Trial was good in Syndey and can bring that to race day. . The market has followed Jamie Kah here with SAILOR'S RUN. The latest jump-out at Terang was slick leading all the way in nice fashion. OPTUME looks to have talent here also. One to watch.
BET: DEAN - ARKANSAW KID – CUT OFF $3
ARKANSAW KID on top here but also think COUNT YOUR PENNIES is over the odds and happy to be backing the both of them for even returns. MEXICO was probably only solid in NSW but does get the blinkers and J-Mac on here, both big positives and he’s probably the trifecta horse of the race. Hard to knock SAILOR’S RUM from either of his jump outs, he’ll be up there with Jamie Kah on board but just not entirely convinced. ARKANSAW KID beat home OPTUME and CAPPER THIRTYNINE in a jump out and looked slick in doing so, the clear pick of these three and our top pick here. D Oliver rides and he’s drawn beautifully with barrier 4. Have to have something on COUNT YOUR PENNIES too, who looks big overs. She’s had three jump outs now, so she certainly will be forward enough and one of those a slick official trial with Ethan Brown in the saddle who sticks here. Feel like if she was with either of the big stables she would big single digits her.
BET: THE JUMP OUTS – ARKANSAW KID – CUT OFF $3, SPEC COUNT YOUR PENNIES – CUT OFF $10
ESTA LA ROCA looks well placed here after a freshen. She was very good behind BELLA NIPOTINA last start in the Norman Carlyon. She has had an impressive tick-over trial leading into this and is ready to go. James Mcdonald jumps on from a good gate. Hard to beat. ASHFORD STREET is on the quick back up after running 4th behind the progressive ASFOORA. Drawn well here and handles the wet impressively. YULONG COMMAND wont want the rain to hit but holds a incredibly good record around The Valley over these short trips. Bone dry he comes into it. SARTORIAL SPLENDOUR rounds out the numbers. Gate 1 isn't ideal but they may be edging off the fence by this stage.
BET: DEAN – ESTA LA ROCA – CUT OFF $4.2
SHALAILED looks like a horse on the rise, he has come back improved this prep. He was excellent at the last start in the Blue Sapphire breaking away from the pack behind the smart GRAND IMPACT who is a top-level 3yo IMO. Drawn perfectly and find Nash Rawilller which is a big boost. SWEET RIDE is an interesting runner, also nommed for the G1 Manikato but this looks like a much more suitable race. He is a horse who has caught punters off guard this prep. Good last start in the Roman Consul Stakes behind BEST OF BORDEAUX. Drawn out but will go forward. GREAT BARRIER REEF if here can run well, will be back but I like that he has drawn off rails. If the rain does come this could see horse's edge of the inside which would aid his chnaces. MR TICKLES was a good debut winner, harder here but has upside.
BET: DEAN – SHALAILED – CUT OFF $3.2
SHALAILED is the horse to beat after a sound effort in the Blue Sapphire behind what looks a smart one in Grand Impact. Handles give in the track and he sets up well regardless of what the others do around him. His main dangers are all likely behind him or vulnerable in running, making for a strong winning profile.
BET: ADAM – SHALAILED – CUT OFF $3.7
GREECE is incredibly hard to beat if she lines up on no worse than a soft 5. She has always had massive wraps on her but she's a filly who doesn't handle the wet tracks. She showed glimpses of her brilliance first up when bowling along out in front destroying her rivals in 2nd gear. The Valley looks perfectly suited to here and I'm keen to bet up if dry. EVERGLADE was very impressive on debut at The Valley. She looks to get a similar set-up here and can improve. WILLINGA BEAST has to be respected, she lacks that killer blow but brings good Sydney form here and handles all conditions. SWEETENED had no luck last start at Caulfield getting a long way back but she was very good late in the race charging to the line. If they overdo it upfront she will be launching.
BET: DEAN – GREECE – CUT OFF $3.7
EVERGLADE cruised to the front on debut and went to the line with a couple of extra gears. Admittedly, the track played to suit, however there was a lot to like when asked to extend and the sheer arrogance in which she did it in was admirable. She sets up similarly today and I believe she progresses.
BET: ADAM – EVERGLADE EW – CUT OFF $6/2.2
Leaning the way of HELL HATH NO FURY here in race 5. she comes out of a solid form race at Sandown where she did have all favours but keep finding late. She gets two big ticks today. Barrier 4 and James Mcodnalnd in the saddle. BONHUER didn't handle the heavy conditions last start when well enough in the market. A dryer track here could see her bounce back in big fashion. DO IT LA faded late last start behind SHE'S LICKETYSPLIT and TAJNEED. That is good form and this race looks easier on paper. Drawn well too. CLIMBING STAR rising quickly in class here after winning her maiden impressive. Scope to improve.
Hard to go against TUVALU here, he was great last start in the Toorak albeit getting a perfect run in transit. He is a horse who improves in his prep and holds a 2/2 record 3rs up. Darwn well and handles all conditions. Easy to have on top. GENTLEMAN ROY was game in the Toorak setting a hot tempo up front and just fading late, softer run in transit here can see him improve. BANKERS CHOICE was good late off that hot tempo in the Toorak. Smaller field suits, can they run on? The international import MY OBERON has jump-out well leading in and can run up to this.
COMMENT: TO BE UPDATED – TUVALU SCRATCHED
A sharp edition of the G2 Vase Stakes. BERKELEY SQUARE is building toward a big run. He was solid late in the Caulfeild Guineas getting a long way back off the slow speed. Up to 2000m now suits where he cans it closer from the draw. PERICLES is a very interesting runner here, he was good winning first up before an outstanding run against the basis at Randwick 2nd up. A horse on the rise. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE ties into this race through FOUJITA SAN. He was great last stat at this track from an impossible spot last the rials. he has a nice turn of foot and the forecast of rain coming helps his chances. FOUJITA SAN can be a big improver here form a kind gate, forgive his Guineas run when drawing the car park.
PERSAN is building towards a peak run here 4th up over the 2500m. He holds a 2/3 record at this trip and has a win around the Valley. They went awfully slow last start which allowed those off the pace to get into the race. Look for a more positive ride here. LUNAR FLARE sprinted well last start when rising to 2500m. Stays at the trip now and is peaking in condition. SACAMENTO comes out of a well rating edition of the St Leger behind STOCKMAN. He is on the quick backup and can run well. FRANCESCO GUARDI nearly fell last start before unleashing a powerful turn of foot to run the fastest L200m of the entire meeting. Different set-up here but finds James Mcdonald.
Australia's best race, we get a mouth-watering edition this year with still a lot to play out with the state of the track with the forecasted rain. The race shape is so key. ANAMOE is the horse with the most improvement out of his last start in the Might And Power Stakes. He crabbed around the bend losing ~2L but still had the will to win to let down and win. Champion traits. The draw is perfect and if the rain comes I think this helps him even more where they could edge off the inside. ZAAKI is another who has good improvement off last start. Kah needs to use the gate and use ZAAKI's speed up front and go along at a fast clip, that's his way to beat ANAMOE. MR BRIGHTSDIE was excellent late in the Might And Power albeit off a slow tempo. He is unbeaten at The Valley which is key. He is still untapped. We always have to respect the international, EL BODEGON doesn't bring A form but it doesn't normally need to be to knock our staying ranks off. His work on Tuesday was very sharp. Market very important.
MY WHISPER could be a sneaky chance here in the last after finding the line over the shorter trips late in Sydney. The step up to 1600m suits from a nice enough gate. SIRILEO MISS produced a big peak last start, her form is mixed with no real pattern making her a hard horse to catch. We have to respect her here. ROOTS has been savaging the line in Sydney in her first two runs. She is dynamic over these shorter trips, the mile is ideal. Drawn in but should get an okay run. DOUCEUR can run well here with a nice tick-over trial. She will need the tempo on but can run over the top if they overcook it.
R11 – MANIKATO TRANSFER RACE
A solid editon of the G1 Manikato Stakes. The way the track plays is so key to who wins here. I'm keen to be on BELLA NIPOTINA, she has been enormous in her past two starts at The Valley which is key. Last start in the Moir against the bias she was back wide before charging to the line, 5th fastest final 800m of the entire meeting. Needs luck from the inside but if the fence is hot watch out. PAULELE naturally goes in for second, he was good in the Moir but didn't handle the track well. The step up to 1200m suits but he is a horse who needs to balance up to see his best late. Drawn well too. ROCH 'N' HORSE is a model of consistency, he has an attractive racing pattern and is always thereabouts. He draws out which is the query but the form around PRIAVTE EYE reads very well now through The Everest. ROTHFIRE slots in for 4th. He has drawn ideally here from gate 5. If we see any inch of a leader's bias track he firms no doubt.
BET: DEAN – BELLA NIPOTINA – CUT OFF $4.5
BELLA NIPOTINA was tremendous through the Moir, running on from a deep and rearward position, which was against the pattern on the night. The low draw allows to sneak runs and will need luck. No shortage of speed and whilst I didn’t profile her for 1200m, I think that changes the way she has come back this time in. PAULELE sets up the better, however with current figures in her two starts, there’s enough edge in BELLA NIPOTINA’S price to play.
BET: ADAM – BELLA NIPOTINA – CUT OFF $4.75